armenia is cornered with no way out, but it has to find one.

landlocked, blockaded, and betrayed, can this tiny nation survive on its own?

If there’s one country that’s perpetually caught in a geopolitical no-man’s land, it’s Armenia. Landlocked, blockaded, and wedged between regional powers that either ignore it or outright dislike it, Armenia has spent the past few decades in a state of constant existential anxiety.

And now, after the fall of Nagorno-Karabakh and Russia’s blatant betrayal, it’s being forced to rethink everything. Its allies, its economy, its security, and, ultimately, its future.

The problem? There are no easy choices.

Following Azerbaijan's military offensive in September 2023, over 100,000 ethnic Armenians, nearly the entire population of Nagorno-Karabakh, fled to Armenia within a span of two weeks. By October 3, 2023, the Armenian government reported that 100,617 refugees had crossed into Armenia. As of November 2023, only a few dozen ethnic Armenians remained in Nagorno-Karabakh. ​

russia’s abandonment: a wake-up call?

For over a century, Armenia treated Russia as its patron and security guarantor. That made sense when Moscow was willing to play that role, but 2020 changed everything.

When Azerbaijan launched its offensive to retake Nagorno-Karabakh, Russia, which had long styled itself as Armenia’s protector, sat back and watched. The same thing happened in 2023 when Azerbaijan finished the job, forcing the last remaining Armenians out of the region.

Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan meets with Russian President Vladimir Putin as Armenia drifts further from Moscow’s influence, seeking new alliances after Russia’s inaction during the Nagorno-Karabakh crisis.

This wasn’t just a military defeat. It was a psychological rupture. The idea that Russia would swoop in and save Armenia, a belief deeply ingrained in the country’s political DNA, was shattered. And in its place came an unsettling realization:

Armenia is on its own.

a desperate pivot to the west?

Losing faith in Russia has sent Armenia scrambling for alternatives, and right now, the West, particularly France, is stepping in.

Emmanuel Macron has positioned himself as Armenia’s loudest advocate, sending military aid and taking a hard stance against Azerbaijan. The U.S. has also launched a “Strategic Partnership Commission” with Armenia and increasing military cooperation (Its hard to know the future of US-Armenia relations now that Trump is in power). The EU, for its part, deployed a civilian monitoring mission to the Armenia-Azerbaijan border and pledged millions in aid.

Armenia strengthens its military with advanced French weaponry, including the CAESAR self-propelled howitzer, as it pivots away from Russian arms supplies.

All of this signals a shift, but let’s be clear: the West’s interest in Armenia is limited. The U.S. and EU might support Armenia diplomatically, but they aren’t going to start a war with Azerbaijan (or Turkey) on its behalf. France’s arms deals are helpful, but they don’t replace a real security umbrella. Armenia is moving toward the West, but the West isn’t exactly rushing to embrace it.

And then there’s geography, Armenia is thousands of miles away from its newfound allies, landlocked between countries that are either hostile (Azerbaijan, Turkey) or unreliable (Russia, Georgia). There is no simple way for Armenia to integrate itself into the Western economic or security framework without first solving its regional isolation problem.

the geography trap

Here’s where things get complicated. Armenia isn’t just landlocked, it’s blockaded. The Turkish and Azerbaijani borders have been closed since the 1990s, meaning Armenia’s only real routes to the outside world are through Georgia (increasingly aligned with Russia) and Iran (heavily sanctioned).

This has left Armenia in a chokehold. Almost everything it trades passes through Georgia, but that route is unreliable. The only major road linking Armenia to Russia, the Upper Lars crossing, is frequently shut down due to weather, landslides, or bureaucratic delays. Every winter, Armenian truckers are left stranded for weeks in freezing temperatures, waiting for Russian customs to let them through.

Massive truck congestion at the Upper Lars checkpoint highlights Armenia’s fragile trade lifeline to Russia, as unpredictable road conditions and bureaucratic delays continue to disrupt supply chains.

Then there’s Iran. On paper, this should be a promising alternative. Tehran and Yerevan have good relations, and trade has been growing. But Iran is under crushing international sanctions, and Armenia can’t afford to get too cozy with a country that might bring Western penalties down on its own fragile economy.

This leaves Armenia with a brutal dilemma: does it try to break out of isolation by re-engaging with Azerbaijan and Turkey, or does it double down on its existing (and limited) connections?

the zangezur corridor

Azerbaijan’s President, Ilham Aliyev, has been pushing hard for what’s known as the Zangezur Corridor, a transit route that would cut through Armenia’s southern Syunik province to connect Azerbaijan with its exclave, Nakhchivan. Baku (and Ankara) sees this as a way to integrate the Turkic world, linking Azerbaijan to Turkey via Armenian land.

Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan reaffirm their close political, military, and economic partnership, with Turkey being Azerbaijan’s strongest backer, providing diplomatic support, weapons, and military training, especially during and after the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. Their relationship is often described as “one nation, two states,” reflecting their deep historical and strategic ties.

Armenia sees it as a national security nightmare. Giving Azerbaijan an uncontrolled route through its territory would essentially create an Azerbaijani lifeline across southern Armenia. Many Armenians fear this is just step one in a broader push by Azerbaijan to claim Syunik altogether.

But here’s the thing: Armenia needs a way to access the world. And if Turkey and Azerbaijan hold the keys to opening the blockade, is there any realistic alternative?

The proposed Zangezur Corridor, a strategic transit route linking Azerbaijan to its Nakhchivan exclave through Armenia’s Syunik province, remains a point of geopolitical tension.

Iran has been a vocal opponent of the Zangezur Corridor, fearing that it would cut Iran out of regional trade routes and strengthen Turkish-Azeri influence. Tehran has even conducted military drills near the Armenian border to send a message: don’t give in. For now, Armenia is resisting the corridor, but the pressure isn’t going away.

The harsh reality is that keeping the status quo means continued isolation. Without a new economic corridor, Armenia will remain a country whose only reliable exit to the world runs through a single unreliable country, Georgia.

a military in need of reinvention

Beyond the economic and diplomatic headaches, there’s the issue of security. Armenia’s military was exposed as woefully unprepared during the 2020 war. Since then, it has been scrambling to modernize.

With Russia proving useless, Armenia has started buying weapons from India and France, two countries that have their own reasons to counterbalance Turkish-Azeri (and also Pakistani) influence. India has sold Armenia rocket artillery and anti-tank missiles, while France has provided air defense systems.

Armenia and India’s ties have deepened in recent years, particularly in defense, trade, and strategic cooperation. the reason behind this growing partnership is their shared concerns about Azerbaijan, Turkey, and Pakistan, three countries that have formed a close geopolitical and military alliance.

But arms alone won’t solve the bigger problem: Armenia has no real security guarantees. It’s no longer protected by Russia, but it’s not under NATO’s umbrella either. It exists in a security vacuum, vulnerable to whatever Azerbaijan or Turkey decide to do next.

the road ahead: hard choices, no easy answers

So where does Armenia go from here? The way I see it, there are three potential paths:

1. Double down on Western integration:

   Armenia can continue breaking away from Russia and deepening ties with the U.S., France, and the EU. This would mean more military aid, more trade agreements, and a gradual shift into the Western orbit. But this path has a major geographical problem. Armenia is isolated from the West, and unless it solves that, deeper integration won’t be enough.

2. Make peace with Azerbaijan and Turkey:

   This would involve some painful compromises, like agreeing to the Zangezur Corridor and normalizing relations with Ankara. The upside? The blockade would end, Armenia would get access to new trade routes and partners, and the economy could finally grow. The downside? It would be a bitter pill for Armenians to swallow, and trusting Azerbaijan after everything that has happened is a big gamble.

3. Try to survive in the status quo:

   This means sticking with the current approach, strengthening ties with Iran and Georgia while slowly increasing Western connections. It’s the safest option politically, but also the riskiest economically and militarily. With no new trade routes and no security umbrella, Armenia could find itself permanently stuck in a defensive crouch, vulnerable to whatever its neighbors decide to do next.

None of these options are perfect. But the one thing Armenia cannot afford to do is nothing. If it stays frozen in its current position, isolated, militarily vulnerable, economically stagnant, it will remain at the mercy of larger players. And as history has shown, those larger players don’t always have Armenia’s best interests in mind.

The question isn’t whether Armenia can escape its impossible geography.

It’s whether it can make the right moves to stop that geography from trapping it forever or worse.